Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
